AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Two Dec 16, 2023

Forfar Athletic

Home
VS
15:00

Dumbarton

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Forfar Athletic Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Dumbarton Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 1.38 - 0.84
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.8
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Forfar Athletic Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Dumbarton Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
43%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 1-1 (13%) 0-0 (11%) 2-0 (10%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (9%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Under 2.5 Goals 62%
Forfar Athletic Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 19 Forfar At… vs Dumbarton 3-1
Apr 29 Forfar At… vs Stirling … 2-1
Mar 29 Forfar At… vs Dumbarton 0-1
Mar 21 Forfar At… vs Stirling … 2-0
Jan 14 Forfar At… vs Dumbarton 2-1
Nov 19 Forfar At… vs Dumbarton 2-2
Oct 01 Forfar At… vs Dumbarton 0-0
Dumbarton Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 09 Dumbarton vs Stenhouse… 0-1
Nov 25 Dumbarton vs Alloa Ath… 4-5
Nov 18 Dumbarton vs Elgin City 1-0
Oct 21 Dumbarton vs Spartans 2-0
Oct 07 Dumbarton vs Clyde 0-4
Sep 30 Dumbarton vs Stranraer 3-1
Sep 16 Dumbarton vs Elgin City 2-0
Aug 26 Dumbarton vs Stenhouse… 2-4
Aug 19 Dumbarton vs Forfar At… 3-1
Aug 12 Dumbarton vs Spartans 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Dumbarton in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
  • Forfar Athletic struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 19, 2023 Dumbarton 3 - 1 Forfar Athletic League Two
Mar 29, 2023 Dumbarton 0 - 1 Forfar Athletic League Two
Jan 14, 2023 Forfar Athletic 2 - 1 Dumbarton League Two
Nov 19, 2022 Dumbarton 2 - 2 Forfar Athletic League Two
Oct 01, 2022 Forfar Athletic 0 - 0 Dumbarton League Two
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Forfar Athletic Power 0
Dumbarton Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Forfar Athletic Position

+2

Position Gap

8

Dumbarton Position
Home Win Rate: 36%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.