AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera A Dec 04, 2025

Atlético Nacional

Home
VS
23:30

Independiente Medellin

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Atlético Nacional Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Independiente Medellin Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 4.50 - 1.06
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.1 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Atlético Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Independiente Medellin Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%) 3-0 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 2-0 (4%) 3-2 (3%) 2-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Atlético Nacional Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 30 Atlético … vs Junior 2-1
Nov 27 Atlético … vs Junior 1-1
Nov 23 Atlético … vs Independi… 0-0
Nov 21 Atlético … vs America d… 1-0
Nov 16 Atlético … vs America d… 2-2
Nov 14 Atlético … vs Junior 2-1
Nov 08 Atlético … vs Rionegro … 2-1
Nov 02 Atlético … vs America d… 4-1
Oct 31 Atlético … vs Llaneros 0-3
Oct 26 Atlético … vs Independi… 5-2
Independiente Medellin Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 02 Independi… vs America d… 1-1
Nov 27 Independi… vs America d… 2-1
Nov 23 Independi… vs Atlético … 0-0
Nov 20 Independi… vs Junior 1-0
Nov 14 Independi… vs America d… 3-0
Nov 11 Independi… vs Envigado 1-1
Nov 07 Independi… vs Deportivo… 1-4
Nov 03 Independi… vs Envigado 0-1
Oct 29 Independi… vs Bucaraman… 3-0
Oct 26 Independi… vs Atlético … 5-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 23, 2025 Independiente Medel… 0 - 0 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Oct 26, 2025 Atlético Nacional 5 - 2 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Sep 08, 2025 Independiente Medel… 3 - 3 Atlético Nacional Primera A
May 04, 2025 Independiente Medel… 1 - 1 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Mar 22, 2025 Atlético Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 18, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 0 Atlético Nacional Copa Colombia
Nov 11, 2024 Atlético Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 01, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 0 Independiente Medel… Copa Colombia
Jul 03, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 2 Atlético Nacional Liga Femenina
Jun 19, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 2 Independiente Medel… Liga Femenina
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Atlético Nacional to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Atlético Nacional Power 0
Independiente Medellin Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Atlético Nacional Position

+11

Position Gap

17

Independiente Medellin Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.