AI Match Insights

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Eredivisie Nov 10, 2023

Fortuna Sittard

Home
VS
19:00

Heracles

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Fortuna Sittard Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Heracles Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.11 - 0.53
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.5 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Heracles Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
59%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 0-0 (19%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Under 2.5 Goals 77%
Fortuna Sittard Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 05 Fortuna S… vs Zwolle 2-0
Oct 21 Fortuna S… vs PSV Eindh… 3-1
Oct 01 Fortuna S… vs AZ Alkmaar 4-0
Sep 22 Fortuna S… vs GO Ahead … 3-0
Sep 03 Fortuna S… vs Ajax 0-0
Aug 19 Fortuna S… vs Almere Ci… 2-1
May 14 Fortuna S… vs PSV Eindh… 2-1
Apr 23 Fortuna S… vs GO Ahead … 2-0
Apr 16 Fortuna S… vs AZ Alkmaar 0-3
Apr 09 Fortuna S… vs Ajax 4-0
Heracles Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 04 Heracles vs PSV Eindh… 0-6
Oct 28 Heracles vs Heerenveen 3-0
Oct 22 Heracles vs FC Twente 2-2
Oct 07 Heracles vs GO Ahead … 4-0
Feb 24 Heracles vs Telstar 7-0
Jan 12 Heracles vs GO Ahead … 0-1
Sep 16 Heracles vs Telstar 0-3
Jul 15 Heracles vs Sparta Ro… 1-0
May 15 Heracles vs Sparta Ro… 1-3
Apr 30 Heracles vs FC Twente 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Heracles struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 03, 2022 Fortuna Sittard 0 - 2 Heracles Eredivisie
Nov 20, 2021 Heracles 3 - 1 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie
Feb 05, 2021 Fortuna Sittard 0 - 1 Heracles Eredivisie
Dec 11, 2020 Heracles 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Fortuna Sittard to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Fortuna Sittard Power 0
Heracles Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

Fortuna Sittard Position

+5

Position Gap

16

Heracles Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.