AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Dec 26, 2025

Newcastle Jets

Home
VS
08:35

Macarthur FC

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Newcastle Jets Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Macarthur FC Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 50%
xG: 1.80 - 0.96
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 1.0
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle Jets Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Macarthur FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
38%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 1-1 (11%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 0-0 (6%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
Newcastle Jets Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 20 Newcastle… vs Sydney 2-0
Dec 14 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 1-3
Dec 06 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 0-1
Nov 30 Newcastle… vs Auckland 1-2
Nov 23 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 1-2
Nov 09 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 3-0
Nov 01 Newcastle… vs Sydney 1-4
Oct 24 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 5-2
Oct 19 Newcastle… vs Central C… 3-2
Aug 24 Newcastle… vs Macarthur… 3-0
Macarthur FC Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 23 Macarthur… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Dec 19 Macarthur… vs Brisbane … 2-1
Dec 11 Macarthur… vs Beijing G… 1-2
Dec 05 Macarthur… vs Melbourne… 0-0
Nov 30 Macarthur… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Nov 27 Macarthur… vs Wofoo Tai… 2-1
Nov 22 Macarthur… vs Wellingto… 0-1
Nov 09 Macarthur… vs Sydney 2-0
Nov 06 Macarthur… vs Công An N… 2-1
Nov 01 Macarthur… vs Western S… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newcastle Jets in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 24, 2025 Newcastle Jets 3 - 0 Macarthur FC Australia Cup
Mar 28, 2025 Macarthur FC 3 - 3 Newcastle Jets A-League
Jan 12, 2025 Newcastle Jets 1 - 3 Macarthur FC A-League
Oct 25, 2024 Macarthur FC 1 - 2 Newcastle Jets A-League
Aug 25, 2024 Newcastle Jets 3 - 4 Macarthur FC Australia Cup
Feb 25, 2024 Newcastle Jets 2 - 2 Macarthur FC A-League
Jan 05, 2024 Macarthur FC 1 - 1 Newcastle Jets A-League
Apr 14, 2023 Newcastle Jets 2 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
Feb 18, 2023 Macarthur FC 0 - 1 Newcastle Jets A-League
Jan 08, 2023 Macarthur FC 2 - 0 Newcastle Jets A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Newcastle Jets to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle Jets Power 0
Macarthur FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Newcastle Jets Position

+3

Position Gap

4

Macarthur FC Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 38%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.