AI Match Insights
Ligue 1 Mar 17, 2023
Lyon
HomeVS
20:00
Nantes
AwayAI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Lyon Win
Draw
Nantes Win
Home Win
(43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
84%
Standings
88%
Market
50%
Combined: 55%
Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 1.65 - 0.36
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.4
Position gap: 12 places
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Lyon Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Nantes Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%)
2-0 (18%)
0-0 (13%)
3-0 (10%)
1-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
Under 2.5 Goals
68%
Lyon Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Lyon vs Lille | 3-3 |
| Mar 05 | Lyon vs Lorient | 0-0 |
| Feb 08 | Lyon vs Lille | 2-2 |
| Feb 04 | Lyon vs Estac Tro… | 1-3 |
| Feb 01 | Lyon vs Stade Bre… | 0-0 |
| Jan 11 | Lyon vs Nantes | 0-0 |
| Jan 07 | Lyon vs Metz | 2-1 |
| Dec 28 | Lyon vs Stade Bre… | 2-4 |
| Oct 30 | Lyon vs Lille | 1-0 |
| Sep 11 | Lyon vs Monaco | 2-1 |
Nantes Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Nantes vs Nice | 2-2 |
| Mar 01 | Nantes vs Lens | 2-1 |
| Feb 19 | Nantes vs Lens | 3-1 |
| Feb 12 | Nantes vs Lorient | 1-0 |
| Feb 08 | Nantes vs Angers | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Nantes vs Marseille | 0-2 |
| Jan 11 | Nantes vs Lyon | 0-0 |
| Dec 21 | Nantes vs Lorient | 2-1 |
| Oct 23 | Nantes vs Nice | 1-1 |
| Sep 18 | Nantes vs Lens | 0-0 |
Key Analysis Factors
No specific factors identified for this match.
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | Nantes | 0 - 0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2022 | Lyon | 3 - 2 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Nantes | 0 - 1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Nantes | 1 - 2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Final Verdict
ELITE: Lyon to win (92% confidence)
ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0
92% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
POWER_HOME_15+
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Lyon Power
42
Nantes Power
26
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
4
Lyon Position+12
Position Gap16
Nantes Position
Home Win Rate: 80%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.