AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Premiership Aug 15, 2023

Larne

Home
VS
18:45

Ballymena United

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Larne Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Ballymena United Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 93%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 56% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.04 - 1.08
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.0 vs 1.1 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Larne Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
15%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Ballymena United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 3-0 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 1-1 (5%) 1-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
Larne Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 11 Larne vs Glentoran 1-2
Aug 07 Larne vs Dungannon… 4-4
Jul 07 Larne vs Bangor 0-1
Jul 01 Larne vs Crusaders… 0-2
Apr 29 Larne vs Coleraine… 3-0
Apr 07 Larne vs Glentoran 2-0
Mar 31 Larne vs Ballymena… 0-2
Feb 25 Larne vs Carrick R… 2-3
Feb 14 Larne vs Dungannon… 0-3
Feb 10 Larne vs Glentoran 3-0
Ballymena United Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 11 Ballymena… vs Crusaders… 1-2
Aug 04 Ballymena… vs Coleraine… 2-1
Jul 25 Ballymena… vs Portadown 2-1
May 07 Ballymena… vs Crusaders… 0-4
Apr 29 Ballymena… vs Carrick R… 1-0
Apr 15 Ballymena… vs Dungannon… 2-0
Apr 11 Ballymena… vs Glentoran 3-2
Apr 07 Ballymena… vs Portadown 1-0
Mar 31 Ballymena… vs Larne 0-2
Mar 07 Ballymena… vs Coleraine… 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Ballymena United struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 31, 2023 Larne 0 - 2 Ballymena United Irish Cup
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Larne to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Larne Power 0
Ballymena United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Larne Position

+9

Position Gap

10

Ballymena United Position
Home Win Rate: 77%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.