AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
2. Bundesliga Nov 11, 2023

Holstein Kiel

Home
VS
12:00

Hamburger SV

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Holstein Kiel Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Hamburger SV Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 4.50 - 1.81
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.8
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Holstein Kiel Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Hamburger SV Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (5%) 3-2 (5%) 2-1 (3%) 2-2 (3%) 3-0 (3%) 3-3 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Under 2.5 Goals 35%
Holstein Kiel Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 01 Holstein … vs FC Augsbu… 3-3
Sep 24 Holstein … vs Hertha Be… 2-3
Sep 02 Holstein … vs SC Paderb… 2-1
Aug 20 Holstein … vs FC Augsbu… 2-4
Aug 05 Holstein … vs SpVgg Gre… 2-1
Jul 30 Holstein … vs Eintracht… 0-1
Apr 02 Holstein … vs Arminia B… 2-3
Mar 18 Holstein … vs Hamburger… 0-0
Feb 25 Holstein … vs SC Paderb… 1-1
Feb 17 Holstein … vs Eintracht… 2-3
Hamburger SV Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 21 Hamburger… vs FC St. Pa… 4-3
Mar 18 Hamburger… vs Holstein … 0-0
Jan 13 Hamburger… vs SC Freibu… 6-2
Oct 14 Hamburger… vs FC St. Pa… 3-0
Sep 09 Hamburger… vs Holstein … 2-3
Apr 19 Hamburger… vs SC Freibu… 1-3
Apr 10 Hamburger… vs Holstein … 1-0
Feb 27 Hamburger… vs Werder Br… 2-3
Jan 21 Hamburger… vs FC St. Pa… 2-1
Oct 30 Hamburger… vs Holstein … 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 18, 2023 Hamburger SV 0 - 0 Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga
Sep 09, 2022 Holstein Kiel 2 - 3 Hamburger SV 2. Bundesliga
Apr 10, 2022 Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 Hamburger SV 2. Bundesliga
Oct 30, 2021 Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga
Mar 08, 2021 Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga
Nov 09, 2020 Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 Hamburger SV 2. Bundesliga
Jun 08, 2020 Hamburger SV 3 - 3 Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga
Final Verdict

ELITE: Holstein Kiel to win (88% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0 88% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_15+
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 88
Holstein Kiel Power 45
Hamburger SV Power 29
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.