AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Nov 12, 2023

Benfica

Home
VS
20:30

Sporting CP

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Benfica Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Sporting CP Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 72%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.03 - 0.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.0 vs 0.2
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Benfica Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Sporting CP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
80%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (29%) 0-0 (28%) 2-0 (15%) 1-1 (7%) 0-1 (7%) 3-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 13%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Under 2.5 Goals 87%
Benfica Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 07 Benfica vs Estoril 0-1
Sep 29 Benfica vs FC Porto 1-0
Sep 03 Benfica vs Leixões SC 1-1
Aug 27 Benfica vs Marítimo 0-1
Aug 19 Benfica vs Estrela d… 2-0
Aug 09 Benfica vs FC Porto 2-0
May 27 Benfica vs FC Porto 3-1
May 21 Benfica vs Sporting … 2-2
May 06 Benfica vs SC Braga 1-0
Apr 23 Benfica vs Estoril 1-0
Sporting CP Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 05 Sporting … vs Estrela d… 3-2
Oct 08 Sporting … vs Arouca 2-1
Sep 25 Sporting … vs Rio Ave FC 2-0
Aug 18 Sporting … vs Casa Pia … 1-2
Jul 14 Sporting … vs Estrela d… 1-4
May 21 Sporting … vs Benfica 2-2
Apr 24 Sporting … vs Guimaraes 0-2
Apr 16 Sporting … vs Arouca 1-1
Apr 09 Sporting … vs Casa Pia … 3-4
Apr 05 Sporting … vs GIL Vicen… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Benfica in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Sporting CP in strong form (5W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 21, 2023 Sporting CP 2 - 2 Benfica Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Benfica to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Benfica Power 0
Sporting CP Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Benfica Position

-1

Position Gap

2

Sporting CP Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 80%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.