AI Match Insights

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Primeira Liga May 21, 2023

Sporting CP

Home
VS
19:30

Benfica

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Sporting CP Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Benfica Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.18 - 0.29
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.3
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Sporting CP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
3%
Benfica Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
75%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (27%) 0-0 (23%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (8%) 0-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Under 2.5 Goals 82%
Sporting CP Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 24 Sporting … vs Guimaraes 0-2
Apr 16 Sporting … vs Arouca 1-1
Apr 09 Sporting … vs Casa Pia … 3-4
Apr 05 Sporting … vs GIL Vicen… 0-0
Apr 01 Sporting … vs Santa Cla… 3-0
Feb 18 Sporting … vs União de … 0-1
Feb 06 Sporting … vs Rio Ave FC 0-1
Jan 24 Sporting … vs Arouca 1-2
Dec 07 Sporting … vs Rio Ave FC 0-2
Nov 06 Sporting … vs União de … 1-0
Benfica Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
May 06 Benfica vs SC Braga 1-0
Apr 23 Benfica vs Estoril 1-0
Apr 07 Benfica vs FC Porto 1-2
Apr 02 Benfica vs Rio Ave FC 0-1
Mar 26 Benfica vs Sporting … 0-1
Mar 19 Benfica vs Moreirense 2-0
Mar 03 Benfica vs Famalicao 2-0
Feb 25 Benfica vs Leixões SC 1-1
Feb 09 Benfica vs SC Braga 1-1
Jan 31 Benfica vs Académico… 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Sporting CP in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Benfica in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Sporting CP to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Sporting CP Power 0
Benfica Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Sporting CP Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Benfica Position
Home Win Rate: 80%
Away Win Rate: 70%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.