AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Jan 04, 2025

Montrose

Home
VS
15:00

Kelty Hearts

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Montrose Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Kelty Hearts Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 77%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 2.49 - 1.69
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 1.7 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Montrose Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Kelty Hearts Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
19%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 2-2 (7%) 3-1 (7%) 1-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
Montrose Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 14 Montrose vs Alloa Ath… 1-2
Dec 07 Montrose vs Inverness… 2-3
Nov 30 Montrose vs Peterhead 2-3
Nov 16 Montrose vs Stenhouse… 1-0
Nov 02 Montrose vs Queen of … 1-0
Oct 26 Montrose vs Rangers FC 0-2
Oct 19 Montrose vs Kelty Hea… 0-2
Sep 28 Montrose vs Alloa Ath… 2-2
Sep 14 Montrose vs Stenhouse… 3-0
Sep 07 Montrose vs Arbroath 3-0
Kelty Hearts Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 21 Kelty Hea… vs Queen of … 2-0
Dec 17 Kelty Hea… vs Arbroath 3-2
Dec 14 Kelty Hea… vs Rangers FC 0-0
Dec 07 Kelty Hea… vs Alloa Ath… 0-2
Nov 30 Kelty Hea… vs Elgin City 3-2
Oct 26 Kelty Hea… vs Stenhouse… 2-1
Oct 19 Kelty Hea… vs Montrose 0-2
Oct 12 Kelty Hea… vs Dunfermli… 2-1
Oct 05 Kelty Hea… vs Queen of … 1-5
Sep 21 Kelty Hea… vs Alloa Ath… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Montrose struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 19, 2024 Kelty Hearts 0 - 2 Montrose League One
Aug 03, 2024 Montrose 1 - 1 Kelty Hearts League One
Apr 27, 2024 Kelty Hearts 0 - 2 Montrose League One
Feb 17, 2024 Montrose 4 - 2 Kelty Hearts League One
Dec 16, 2023 Kelty Hearts 0 - 1 Montrose League One
Aug 05, 2023 Montrose 0 - 2 Kelty Hearts League One
Mar 18, 2023 Kelty Hearts 1 - 2 Montrose League One
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Montrose to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Montrose Power 0
Kelty Hearts Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Montrose Position

+5

Position Gap

10

Kelty Hearts Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 27%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.