AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Dec 29, 2025

Melbourne Victory

Home
VS
08:00

Wellington Phoenix

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Wellington Phoenix Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 30%
xG: 2.26 - 0.64
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 0.6
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
53%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (14%) 1-0 (12%) 3-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 42%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
Melbourne Victory Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 20 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-1
Dec 13 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Dec 05 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 0-0
Nov 28 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Nov 22 Melbourne… vs Sydney 3-0
Nov 08 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-2
Oct 31 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Oct 24 Melbourne… vs Newcastle… 5-2
Oct 18 Melbourne… vs Auckland 0-0
Sep 24 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 3-0
Wellington Phoenix Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 21 Wellingto… vs Central C… 3-1
Dec 14 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 1-3
Dec 06 Wellingto… vs Auckland 3-1
Nov 29 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Nov 22 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Nov 08 Wellingto… vs Auckland 1-2
Nov 02 Wellingto… vs Central C… 1-1
Oct 26 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 2-1
Oct 18 Wellingto… vs Perth Glo… 2-2
May 04 Wellingto… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Wellington Phoenix struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 12, 2025 Wellington Phoenix 2 - 3 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 14, 2025 Melbourne Victory 1 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Nov 24, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 18, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 12, 2024 Melbourne Victory 0 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 12, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Melbourne Victory Position

+2

Position Gap

10

Wellington Phoenix Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.