AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Women's Championship Dec 21, 2025

Birmingham City Women

Home
VS
14:00

Durham Women

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Birmingham City Women Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Durham Women Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 2.54 - 0.92
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.9 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Birmingham City Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Durham Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
40%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Under 2.5 Goals 37%
Birmingham City Women Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 07 Birmingha… vs Crystal P… 3-0
Nov 21 Birmingha… vs Aston Vil… 3-3
Nov 16 Birmingha… vs Portsmout… 5-2
Nov 10 Birmingha… vs Nottingha… 0-3
Nov 02 Birmingha… vs Charlton … 0-1
Oct 19 Birmingha… vs Tottenham… 3-0
Oct 12 Birmingha… vs Ipswich T… 0-4
Oct 05 Birmingha… vs Southampt… 1-2
Sep 27 Birmingha… vs Sheffield… 1-2
Sep 24 Birmingha… vs Bristol C… 2-2
Durham Women Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 14 Durham Wo… vs Sheffield… 0-1
Dec 07 Durham Wo… vs Ipswich T… 1-1
Nov 23 Durham Wo… vs Sunderlan… 1-1
Nov 16 Durham Wo… vs Southampt… 1-1
Nov 09 Durham Wo… vs Newcastle… 1-1
Nov 02 Durham Wo… vs Sheffield… 2-1
Oct 17 Durham Wo… vs Liverpool… 1-2
Oct 12 Durham Wo… vs Nottingha… 3-0
Oct 05 Durham Wo… vs Bristol C… 2-1
Sep 28 Durham Wo… vs Crystal P… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 20, 2025 Birmingham City Wom… 3 - 1 Durham Women Women's Champi…
Dec 08, 2024 Birmingham City Wom… 0 - 1 Durham Women FA Women's Cup
Sep 29, 2024 Durham Women 1 - 0 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Apr 28, 2024 Durham Women 1 - 0 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Nov 19, 2023 Birmingham City Wom… 3 - 1 Durham Women Women's Champi…
Apr 23, 2023 Durham Women 1 - 2 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Apr 19, 2023 Birmingham City Wom… 1 - 0 Durham Women Women's Champi…
Feb 27, 2022 Durham Women 0 - 1 Birmingham City Wom… FA Women's Cup
Final Verdict

ELITE: Birmingham City Women to win (95% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0 95% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_15+ SCORING_THREAT_HOME
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Birmingham City Women Power 54
Durham Women Power 31
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Birmingham City Women Position

+7

Position Gap

9

Durham Women Position
Home Win Rate: 71%
Away Win Rate: 14%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.