AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Campionato Oct 03, 2023

Virtus

Home
VS
19:15

Libertas

Away
AI Predictions 59.0% Confidence
Virtus Win
59.0%
Draw
22.2%
Libertas Win
18.8%
Home Win (59% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 86%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.05 - 0.60
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.6 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Virtus Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Libertas Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (15%) 1-0 (14%) 3-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 0-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 39%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
Virtus Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 22 Virtus vs Pennarossa 1-0
Sep 16 Virtus vs Tre Fiori 0-1
Sep 01 Virtus vs Tre Penne 0-2
May 27 Virtus vs Tre Penne 3-1
May 19 Virtus vs Libertas 1-2
May 13 Virtus vs La Fiorit… 2-1
May 03 Virtus vs Folgore 1-1
Apr 29 Virtus vs Folgore 1-1
Apr 23 Virtus vs Pennarossa 1-3
Apr 06 Virtus vs Folgore 2-0
Libertas Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 Libertas vs Juvenes /… 1-1
May 19 Libertas vs Virtus 1-2
May 03 Libertas vs Tre Fiori 1-1
Apr 29 Libertas vs Tre Fiori 2-1
Apr 22 Libertas vs San Giova… 1-3
Apr 05 Libertas vs Juvenes /… 0-3
Apr 01 Libertas vs Domagnano 3-0
Mar 17 Libertas vs Tre Penne 4-0
Mar 08 Libertas vs Cailungo 1-2
Feb 19 Libertas vs Tre Fiori 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Virtus in strong form (5W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 19, 2023 Libertas 1 - 2 Virtus Campionato
Feb 12, 2023 Libertas 2 - 2 Virtus Campionato
Oct 01, 2022 Virtus 1 - 1 Libertas Campionato
Mar 05, 2022 Libertas 0 - 3 Virtus Campionato
Nov 21, 2021 Virtus 0 - 1 Libertas Campionato
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Virtus to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Virtus Power 0
Libertas Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Virtus Position

+9

Position Gap

11

Libertas Position
Home Win Rate: 78%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.