AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Two Feb 11, 2026

Swindon Town

Home
VS
20:00

Newport County AFC

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Swindon Town Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Newport County AFC Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
CS68+S65 (82.8%) S70+DR<22 (82.1%) S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) CS68+S70+DR<25 (80.0%) M85+S60 (75.3%) CS68+M80 (75.0%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 95%
Market 50%
Combined: 69% Draw Risk: 12%
xG: 4.50 - 0.89
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.9 Position gap: 19 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Swindon Town Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-2 (3%) 1-0 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Swindon Town Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Swindon T… vs Harrogate… 0-1
Jan 31 Swindon T… vs Barrow 3-1
Jan 27 Swindon T… vs Notts Cou… 2-1
Jan 24 Swindon T… vs Bromley 2-1
Jan 17 Swindon T… vs Salford C… 2-3
Jan 01 Swindon T… vs Gillingham 2-0
Dec 29 Swindon T… vs Cheltenham 0-2
Dec 26 Swindon T… vs Milton Ke… 1-0
Dec 20 Swindon T… vs Crawley T… 1-0
Dec 13 Swindon T… vs Bristol R… 0-3
Newport County AFC Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Newport C… vs Bristol R… 3-0
Jan 27 Newport C… vs Accringto… 1-4
Jan 24 Newport C… vs Chesterfi… 2-1
Jan 17 Newport C… vs Gillingham 3-2
Jan 01 Newport C… vs Bromley 2-1
Dec 29 Newport C… vs Crewe 2-0
Dec 26 Newport C… vs Barnet 0-0
Dec 20 Newport C… vs Colchester 4-1
Dec 13 Newport C… vs Fleetwood… 0-2
Dec 10 Newport C… vs Crewe 2-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Swindon Town struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Newport County AFC struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

PRO: Swindon Town to win (70% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 2-1 70% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_AWAY_25+ SCORING_THREAT_AWAY
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 19
Swindon Town Power 0
Newport County AFC Power 26
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Swindon Town Position

+19

Position Gap

23

Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.