AI Match Insights
League Two Mar 11, 2025
Grimsby
HomeVS
19:45
Newport County AFC
AwayAI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
Draw
Newport County AFC Win
Home Win
(47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%)
S75+DR<25 (81.8%)
M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)
M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
CS65+DR<30 (68.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
77%
Market
50%
Combined: 66%
Draw Risk: 16%
xG: 3.56 - 0.74
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.6 vs 0.7
Position gap: 14 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (10%)
2-0 (9%)
3-1 (8%)
2-1 (6%)
1-0 (5%)
1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
51%
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
Under 2.5 Goals
35%
Grimsby Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 08 | Grimsby vs Walsall | 1-3 |
| Mar 04 | Grimsby vs Tranmere … | 1-1 |
| Mar 04 | Grimsby vs Tranmere … | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Grimsby vs Chelsea | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Grimsby vs Chelsea | 1-1 |
| Feb 22 | Grimsby vs Fleetwood… | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Grimsby vs Fleetwood… | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Grimsby vs Doncaster | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Grimsby vs Carlisle | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Grimsby vs Burnley | 0-2 |
Newport County AFC Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs AFC Wimbl… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | Newport C… vs Birmingham | 3-1 |
| Mar 04 | Newport C… vs Birmingham | 3-1 |
| Mar 04 | Newport C… vs Barrow | 1-2 |
| Mar 01 | Newport C… vs Fleetwood… | 2-2 |
| Mar 01 | Newport C… vs Doncaster | 3-0 |
| Mar 01 | Newport C… vs Fleetwood… | 2-2 |
| Feb 22 | Newport C… vs Chelsea | 0-3 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Newport County AFC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 1 | Grimsby | Pro League |
Final Verdict
PRO: Grimsby to win (74% confidence)
PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0
74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Grimsby Power
38
Newport County AFC Power
26
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
9
Grimsby Position+14
Position Gap23
Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.