AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Two Jan 13, 2024

Grimsby

Home
VS
15:00

Newport County AFC

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Newport County AFC Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 77%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 3.08 - 2.22
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 2.2 Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (6%) 2-2 (6%) 3-1 (5%) 2-1 (5%) 3-3 (4%) 2-3 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Under 2.5 Goals 22%
Grimsby Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 01 Grimsby vs Walsall 1-6
Dec 29 Grimsby vs Watford 0-3
Dec 29 Grimsby vs Watford 0-3
Dec 26 Grimsby vs Mansfield… 2-0
Dec 23 Grimsby vs Harrogate 1-2
Dec 16 Grimsby vs Newport C… 1-1
Dec 16 Grimsby vs Newport C… 1-1
Dec 09 Grimsby vs Crewe 2-1
Nov 28 Grimsby vs Milton Ke… 1-1
Nov 28 Grimsby vs Milton Ke… 1-1
Newport County AFC Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 01 Newport C… vs Southampt… 1-1
Jan 01 Newport C… vs Tranmere … 4-2
Dec 29 Newport C… vs Crewe 1-1
Dec 29 Newport C… vs Morecambe 5-0
Dec 29 Newport C… vs Crewe 1-1
Dec 26 Newport C… vs Forest Gr… 4-2
Dec 26 Newport C… vs Doncaster 3-0
Dec 23 Newport C… vs Wrexham 2-0
Dec 22 Newport C… vs Stockport 2-1
Dec 16 Newport C… vs Grimsby 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Grimsby struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 16, 2023 Newport County AFC 1 - 1 Grimsby League Two
Dec 16, 2023 Newport County AFC 1 - 1 Grimsby Pro League
Aug 12, 2023 Newport County AFC 3 - 2 Grimsby League Two
Mar 07, 2023 Grimsby 1 - 1 Newport County AFC League Two
Sep 03, 2022 Newport County AFC 0 - 2 Grimsby League Two
May 23, 2022 Newport County AFC 1 - 2 Grimsby National League
Feb 05, 2022 Newport County AFC 1 - 2 Grimsby National League
Oct 30, 2021 Grimsby 0 - 1 Newport County AFC National League
Feb 06, 2021 Newport County AFC 1 - 0 Grimsby League Two
Dec 08, 2020 Grimsby 0 - 2 Newport County AFC League Two
Final Verdict

PRO: Grimsby to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Grimsby Power 38
Newport County AFC Power 26
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Grimsby Position

+14

Position Gap

23

Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.