AI Match Insights

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Serie A Mar 30, 2025

Napoli

Home
VS
18:45

AC Milan

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Napoli Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
AC Milan Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 32%
xG: 2.18 - 0.78
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 0.8
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
AC Milan Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
46%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (12%) 1-0 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Under 2.5 Goals 46%
Napoli Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 16 Napoli vs Venezia 0-0
Mar 09 Napoli vs Fiorentina 2-1
Mar 01 Napoli vs Inter 1-1
Feb 23 Napoli vs Como 2-1
Feb 15 Napoli vs Lazio 2-2
Feb 09 Napoli vs Udinese 1-1
Feb 02 Napoli vs AS Roma 1-1
Jan 25 Napoli vs Juventus 2-1
Jan 18 Napoli vs Atalanta 2-3
Jan 12 Napoli vs Verona 2-0
AC Milan Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 15 AC Milan vs Como 2-1
Mar 08 AC Milan vs Lecce 2-3
Mar 02 AC Milan vs Lazio 1-2
Feb 27 AC Milan vs Bologna 2-1
Feb 22 AC Milan vs Torino 2-1
Feb 18 AC Milan vs Feyenoord 1-1
Feb 15 AC Milan vs Verona 1-0
Feb 12 AC Milan vs Feyenoord 1-0
Feb 08 AC Milan vs Empoli 0-2
Feb 05 AC Milan vs AS Roma 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • AC Milan struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 29, 2024 AC Milan 0 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Oct 29, 2024 AC Milan 0 - 2 Napoli Pro League
Feb 11, 2024 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli Pro League
Feb 11, 2024 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli Serie A
Oct 29, 2023 Napoli 2 - 2 AC Milan Serie A
Apr 18, 2023 Napoli 1 - 1 AC Milan UEFA Champions…
Apr 12, 2023 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli UEFA Champions…
Apr 02, 2023 Napoli 0 - 4 AC Milan Serie A
Sep 18, 2022 AC Milan 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Napoli to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Napoli Power 40
AC Milan Power 45
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Napoli Position

-1

Position Gap

2

AC Milan Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 58%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.