AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Feb 11, 2024

AC Milan

Home
VS
19:45

Napoli

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
AC Milan Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Napoli Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 56%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 2.78 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.2
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AC Milan Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (14%) 0-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
AC Milan Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 AC Milan vs Frosinone 2-3
Jan 27 AC Milan vs Bologna 2-2
Jan 27 AC Milan vs Bologna 2-2
Jan 20 AC Milan vs Udinese 2-3
Jan 14 AC Milan vs AS Roma 3-1
Jan 14 AC Milan vs AS Roma 3-1
Jan 10 AC Milan vs Atalanta 1-2
Jan 07 AC Milan vs Empoli 0-3
Jan 02 AC Milan vs Cagliari 4-1
Dec 30 AC Milan vs Sassuolo 1-0
Napoli Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Napoli vs Verona 2-1
Feb 04 Napoli vs Verona 2-1
Jan 28 Napoli vs Lazio 0-0
Jan 28 Napoli vs Lazio 0-0
Jan 22 Napoli vs Inter 0-1
Jan 18 Napoli vs Fiorentina 3-0
Jan 13 Napoli vs Salernita… 2-1
Jan 07 Napoli vs Torino 3-0
Dec 29 Napoli vs Monza 0-0
Dec 23 Napoli vs AS Roma 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • AC Milan in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 29, 2023 Napoli 2 - 2 AC Milan Serie A
Apr 18, 2023 Napoli 1 - 1 AC Milan UEFA Champions…
Apr 12, 2023 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli UEFA Champions…
Apr 02, 2023 Napoli 0 - 4 AC Milan Serie A
Sep 18, 2022 AC Milan 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: AC Milan to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AC Milan Power 45
Napoli Power 40
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

AC Milan Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Napoli Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.