AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
UEFA Champions League Apr 18, 2023

Napoli

Home
VS
19:00

AC Milan

Away
AI Predictions 39.6% Confidence
Napoli Win
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
AC Milan Win
39.6%
Away Win (40% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 3.10 - 1.02
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 1.0
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
AC Milan Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 3-0 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 1-1 (5%) 1-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Under 2.5 Goals 32%
Napoli Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 15 Napoli vs Verona 0-0
Apr 12 Napoli vs AC Milan 1-0
Apr 02 Napoli vs AC Milan 0-4
Mar 11 Napoli vs Atalanta 2-0
Mar 03 Napoli vs Lazio 0-1
Feb 17 Napoli vs Sassuolo 0-2
Feb 12 Napoli vs Cremonese 3-0
Jan 29 Napoli vs AS Roma 2-1
Jan 17 Napoli vs Cremonese 2-2
Jan 13 Napoli vs Juventus 5-1
AC Milan Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 15 AC Milan vs Bologna 1-1
Apr 12 AC Milan vs Napoli 1-0
Apr 02 AC Milan vs Napoli 0-4
Mar 04 AC Milan vs Fiorentina 2-1
Feb 10 AC Milan vs Torino 1-0
Jan 29 AC Milan vs Sassuolo 2-5
Jan 24 AC Milan vs Lazio 4-0
Jan 14 AC Milan vs Lecce 2-2
Jan 11 AC Milan vs Torino 0-1
Nov 13 AC Milan vs Fiorentina 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • AC Milan in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
  • Napoli struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 12, 2023 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli UEFA Champions…
Apr 02, 2023 Napoli 0 - 4 AC Milan Serie A
Sep 18, 2022 AC Milan 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

PRO: Napoli to win (70% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 70% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 74
Napoli Power 40
AC Milan Power 45
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.