AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Jan 16, 2026

Mafra

Home
VS
20:00

União Santarém

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Mafra Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
União Santarém Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 58%
Market 57%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 52%
Asian Handicap: Home -1.25
xG: 1.29 - 0.70
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.7 Asian Handicap: Home -1.25
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Mafra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
28%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
União Santarém Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
50%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (18%) 0-0 (14%) 1-1 (12%) 2-0 (11%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
Mafra Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 10 Mafra vs 1º Dezemb… 1-1
Jan 03 Mafra vs Caldas 4-2
Dec 20 Mafra vs Amora 1-2
Dec 13 Mafra vs SC Covilha 2-0
Dec 06 Mafra vs Academica 3-3
Nov 30 Mafra vs Lusitano … 1-1
Nov 09 Mafra vs CF Os Bel… 2-1
Nov 02 Mafra vs Atlético … 1-0
Oct 26 Mafra vs União San… 1-2
Oct 11 Mafra vs Amora 2-0
União Santarém Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 11 União San… vs Atlético … 1-1
Jan 04 União San… vs 1º Dezemb… 1-0
Dec 19 União San… vs Caldas 0-2
Dec 14 União San… vs Amora 0-0
Dec 07 União San… vs SC Covilha 1-1
Nov 29 União San… vs Academica 1-1
Nov 09 União San… vs Lusitano … 1-0
Nov 02 União San… vs CF Os Bel… 0-2
Oct 26 União San… vs Mafra 1-2
Oct 04 União San… vs Atlético … 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mafra in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 26, 2025 União Santarém 1 - 2 Mafra Liga 3
Oct 02, 2022 União Santarém 0 - 1 Mafra Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Mafra to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Mafra Power 0
União Santarém Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Mafra Position

+2

Position Gap

4

União Santarém Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.