AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FKF Premier League Sep 29, 2024

Murang'a SEAL

Home
VS
12:00

Mara Sugar

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Murang'a SEAL Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Mara Sugar Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 3.25 - 0.83
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 0.8 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Murang'a SEAL Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
13%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Mara Sugar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
44%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (10%) 2-0 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 1-0 (5%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Under 2.5 Goals 34%
Murang'a SEAL Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 25 Murang'a … vs Ulinzi St… 0-1
Jun 19 Murang'a … vs Homeboyz 1-0
Jun 16 Murang'a … vs Police 2-2
May 20 Murang'a … vs Ulinzi St… 1-1
May 04 Murang'a … vs Gor Mahia 1-3
Feb 17 Murang'a … vs Bidco Uni… 1-0
Feb 11 Murang'a … vs AFC Leopa… 1-0
Dec 20 Murang'a … vs AFC Leopa… 1-1
Dec 09 Murang'a … vs Ulinzi St… 1-1
Dec 03 Murang'a … vs Police 2-0
Mara Sugar Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 25 Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz 3-0
Jun 22 Mara Sugar vs Mathare U… 1-0
Oct 21 Mara Sugar vs Mathare U… 2-0
May 28 Mara Sugar vs Murang'a … 0-0
Apr 30 Mara Sugar vs Shabana 3-2
Feb 04 Mara Sugar vs Murang'a … 3-0
Jan 07 Mara Sugar vs Shabana 0-1
Sep 18 Mara Sugar vs Tusker 1-2
Jul 13 Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet 1-0
Jun 13 Mara Sugar vs Murang'a … 3-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 28, 2023 Mara Sugar 0 - 0 Murang'a SEAL Super League
Feb 04, 2023 Murang'a SEAL 3 - 0 Mara Sugar Super League
Jun 13, 2022 Murang'a SEAL 3 - 1 Mara Sugar Super League
Mar 06, 2022 Mara Sugar 1 - 2 Murang'a SEAL Super League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Murang'a SEAL to win (45% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 45% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Murang'a SEAL Power 0
Mara Sugar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Murang'a SEAL Position

+9

Position Gap

13

Mara Sugar Position
Home Win Rate: 44%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.