AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Jan 05, 2024

Macarthur FC

Home
VS
08:45

Newcastle Jets

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Macarthur FC Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Newcastle Jets Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 43% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 1.80 - 1.28
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 1.3
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Macarthur FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Newcastle Jets Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
28%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (8%) 2-0 (7%) 1-2 (7%) 2-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Under 2.5 Goals 42%
Macarthur FC Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 01 Macarthur… vs Western S… 3-1
Dec 23 Macarthur… vs Perth Glo… 3-2
Dec 18 Macarthur… vs Wellingto… 0-3
Dec 09 Macarthur… vs Sydney 0-2
Dec 04 Macarthur… vs Adelaide … 4-3
Nov 24 Macarthur… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Nov 12 Macarthur… vs Melbourne… 3-3
Oct 29 Macarthur… vs Central C… 1-2
Oct 21 Macarthur… vs Brisbane … 1-1
Jul 18 Macarthur… vs Perth Glo… 0-4
Newcastle Jets Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 09 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 0-3
Dec 03 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 0-2
Nov 05 Newcastle… vs Western S… 2-2
Aug 14 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 2-3
Apr 29 Newcastle… vs Sydney 2-0
Apr 14 Newcastle… vs Macarthur… 2-1
Apr 08 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 3-0
Apr 02 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Mar 04 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 2-1
Feb 18 Newcastle… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Macarthur FC struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Newcastle Jets struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 14, 2023 Newcastle Jets 2 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
Feb 18, 2023 Macarthur FC 0 - 1 Newcastle Jets A-League
Jan 08, 2023 Macarthur FC 2 - 0 Newcastle Jets A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Macarthur FC Power 0
Newcastle Jets Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Macarthur FC Position

-3

Position Gap

1

Newcastle Jets Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 71%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.