AI Match Insights
National Soccer League Nov 27, 2024
APR
HomeVS
16:00
Bugesera
AwayAI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
APR Win
Draw
Bugesera Win
Home Win
(47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
85%
Standings
87%
Market
50%
Combined: 55%
Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.60 - 0.24
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.2
Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
APR Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Bugesera Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (25%)
2-0 (20%)
0-0 (16%)
3-0 (11%)
1-1 (6%)
2-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
Under 2.5 Goals
73%
APR Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 03 | APR vs Gorilla | 0-0 |
| Oct 20 | APR vs Gasogi Un… | 1-0 |
| Sep 29 | APR vs Etincelles | 0-0 |
| Jul 19 | APR vs Al Hilal … | 0-0 |
| May 12 | APR vs Amagaju | 1-1 |
| May 03 | APR vs Gorilla | 2-0 |
| Apr 28 | APR vs Gasogi Un… | 1-1 |
| Apr 15 | APR vs AS Kigali | 2-2 |
| Mar 02 | APR vs Etincelles | 1-0 |
| Feb 18 | APR vs Bugesera | 0-0 |
Bugesera Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 1-2 |
| Oct 19 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 2-0 |
| Sep 15 | Bugesera vs Rutsiro | 2-3 |
| Apr 26 | Bugesera vs Police | 1-2 |
| Apr 20 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 1-2 |
| Mar 02 | Bugesera vs Mukura | 0-2 |
| Feb 18 | Bugesera vs APR | 0-0 |
| Jan 26 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 2-2 |
| Jan 13 | Bugesera vs AS Kigali | 0-0 |
| Dec 05 | Bugesera vs Police | 4-2 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Bugesera struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | Bugesera | 0 - 0 | APR | National Socce… |
| Oct 10, 2023 | APR | 1 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
| Apr 02, 2023 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
| Oct 07, 2022 | Bugesera | 2 - 1 | APR | National Socce… |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Bugesera | 0 - 0 | APR | National Socce… |
| Dec 12, 2021 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
| Jun 10, 2021 | Bugesera | 0 - 3 | APR | National Socce… |
| May 11, 2021 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: APR to win (64% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
APR Power
0
Bugesera Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
1
APR Position+11
Position Gap12
Bugesera Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 11%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.