AI Match Insights
National Soccer League Oct 10, 2023
APR
HomeVS
16:00
Bugesera
AwayAI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
APR Win
Draw
Bugesera Win
Home Win
(55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
81%
Standings
87%
Market
50%
Combined: 54%
Draw Risk: 49%
xG: 1.28 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.2
Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (49%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
APR Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Bugesera Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (29%)
0-0 (23%)
2-0 (19%)
3-0 (8%)
1-1 (6%)
0-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
18%
Under 2.5 Goals
82%
APR Form 16.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 06 | APR vs Musanze | 2-1 |
| Sep 23 | APR vs Marines | 2-2 |
| Aug 28 | APR vs Police | 1-0 |
| May 28 | APR vs Gorilla | 1-2 |
| Apr 29 | APR vs AS Kigali | 0-0 |
| Apr 22 | APR vs Police | 2-1 |
| Apr 15 | APR vs Gasogi Un… | 0-0 |
| Apr 02 | APR vs Bugesera | 2-1 |
| Mar 11 | APR vs Marines | 2-3 |
| Feb 26 | APR vs Musanze | 0-3 |
Bugesera Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | Bugesera vs AS Kigali | 1-0 |
| May 28 | Bugesera vs AS Kigali | 2-1 |
| Apr 16 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 0-2 |
| Apr 02 | Bugesera vs APR | 2-1 |
| Mar 11 | Bugesera vs Police | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | Bugesera vs Mukura | 0-1 |
| Feb 17 | Bugesera vs Rutsiro | 3-0 |
| Dec 21 | Bugesera vs Rutsiro | 2-1 |
| Dec 11 | Bugesera vs Mukura | 0-1 |
| Dec 04 | Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… | 1-0 |
Key Analysis Factors
- APR in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
- Bugesera struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 02, 2023 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
| Oct 07, 2022 | Bugesera | 2 - 1 | APR | National Socce… |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Bugesera | 0 - 0 | APR | National Socce… |
| Dec 12, 2021 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
| Jun 10, 2021 | Bugesera | 0 - 3 | APR | National Socce… |
| May 11, 2021 | APR | 2 - 1 | Bugesera | National Socce… |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: APR to win (64% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
APR Power
0
Bugesera Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
1
APR Position+11
Position Gap12
Bugesera Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 11%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.