AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Feb 14, 2025

Melbourne Victory

Home
VS
08:35

Wellington Phoenix

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Wellington Phoenix Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 47%
xG: 2.75 - 0.43
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.4
High draw risk (47%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
65%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (16%) 3-0 (14%) 1-0 (11%) 2-1 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Under 2.5 Goals 44%
Melbourne Victory Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Jan 24 Melbourne… vs Sydney 2-0
Jan 18 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 3-2
Jan 04 Melbourne… vs Western S… 2-2
Dec 28 Melbourne… vs Sydney 3-0
Dec 21 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Dec 08 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 2-0
Nov 24 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-0
Nov 09 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 2-0
Nov 03 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 2-1
Wellington Phoenix Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 06 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-1
Jan 25 Wellingto… vs Central C… 0-0
Jan 20 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Jan 15 Wellingto… vs Sydney 0-0
Jan 11 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 1-2
Jan 03 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 2-0
Dec 28 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 2-1
Dec 14 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Dec 07 Wellingto… vs Auckland 2-1
Nov 24 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 24, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 18, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 12, 2024 Melbourne Victory 0 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 12, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Melbourne Victory Position

+2

Position Gap

10

Wellington Phoenix Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.