AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Jan 19, 2024

Wellington Phoenix

Home
VS
06:00

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Melbourne Victory Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 49%
xG: 2.70 - 1.96
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.7 vs 2.0
High draw risk (49%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (7%) 2-2 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 1-1 (5%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Under 2.5 Goals 23%
Wellington Phoenix Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 04 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-2
Dec 29 Wellingto… vs Sydney 3-1
Dec 18 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 0-3
Dec 09 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 0-3
Nov 25 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Nov 10 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Nov 04 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 5-2
Aug 27 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 3-0
May 05 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-0
Apr 29 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Melbourne Victory Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 13 Melbourne… vs Central C… 1-1
Jan 06 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 2-3
Dec 30 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-0
Dec 23 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-0
Dec 16 Melbourne… vs Sydney 3-0
Dec 10 Melbourne… vs Western S… 3-4
Dec 03 Melbourne… vs Central C… 2-2
Nov 24 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 1-1
Nov 10 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-1
Nov 04 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne Victory in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Wellington Phoenix Position

-2

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.