AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Nov 10, 2023

Melbourne Victory

Home
VS
08:45

Wellington Phoenix

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Wellington Phoenix Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 2.52 - 0.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.2
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
80%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (17%) 1-0 (16%) 0-0 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
Melbourne Victory Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 04 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Oct 21 Melbourne… vs Sydney 0-2
Apr 29 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 0-1
Apr 23 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 2-1
Apr 15 Melbourne… vs Western S… 2-1
Apr 09 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 0-0
Apr 05 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 2-1
Apr 01 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-2
Mar 19 Melbourne… vs Central C… 2-0
Mar 04 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-0
Wellington Phoenix Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 04 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 5-2
Aug 27 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 3-0
May 05 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-0
Apr 29 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Apr 16 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 2-2
Apr 10 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 4-1
Apr 01 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-2
Mar 17 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 5-1
Mar 12 Wellingto… vs Sydney 1-0
Mar 04 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Melbourne Victory Position

+2

Position Gap

10

Wellington Phoenix Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.