AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Apr 01, 2023

Wellington Phoenix

Home
VS
02:00

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Melbourne Victory Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 84%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 39%
xG: 1.90 - 0.64
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.6
High draw risk (39%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
53%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Wellington Phoenix Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 17 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 5-1
Mar 12 Wellingto… vs Sydney 1-0
Mar 04 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 2-1
Feb 24 Wellingto… vs Central C… 1-1
Feb 12 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 2-1
Feb 03 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 3-1
Jan 22 Wellingto… vs Central C… 2-1
Jan 14 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 0-1
Jan 07 Wellingto… vs Sydney 0-1
Jan 02 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-3
Melbourne Victory Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 19 Melbourne… vs Central C… 2-0
Mar 04 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-0
Feb 26 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Feb 03 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 3-1
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-2
Jan 21 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 3-1
Jan 14 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Jan 06 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 0-1
Dec 31 Melbourne… vs Central C… 2-1
Dec 11 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Wellington Phoenix Position

-2

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.