AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Feb 06, 2026

Wellington Phoenix

Home
VS
06:00

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Melbourne Victory Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 1.44 - 0.46
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.5
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
24%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
4%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 2-0 (16%) 0-0 (15%) 1-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Under 2.5 Goals 71%
Wellington Phoenix Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 2-2
Jan 23 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 4-1
Jan 18 Wellingto… vs Sydney 0-2
Jan 11 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-2
Jan 03 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 0-3
Dec 29 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 5-1
Dec 21 Wellingto… vs Central C… 3-1
Dec 14 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 1-3
Dec 06 Wellingto… vs Auckland 3-1
Nov 29 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Melbourne Victory Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Melbourne… vs Central C… 1-0
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney 4-0
Jan 17 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Jan 10 Melbourne… vs Western S… 0-1
Jan 02 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 3-2
Dec 29 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 5-1
Dec 20 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-1
Dec 13 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Dec 05 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 0-0
Nov 28 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne Victory struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 29, 2025 Melbourne Victory 5 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 12, 2025 Wellington Phoenix 2 - 3 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 14, 2025 Melbourne Victory 1 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Nov 24, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 18, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
May 12, 2024 Melbourne Victory 0 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 12, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Wellington Phoenix Position

-2

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.