AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Ligue 1 Sep 24, 2023

Paris Saint Germain

Home
VS
18:45

Marseille

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Paris Saint Germain Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Marseille Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 65%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 2.64 - 1.26
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 1.3
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Paris Saint Germain Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Marseille Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
28%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 2-0 (7%) 1-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 2-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
Paris Saint Germain Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 21 Paris Sai… vs LE Havre … 2-0
May 27 Paris Sai… vs Strasbourg 1-1
May 21 Paris Sai… vs Auxerre 1-2
Mar 19 Paris Sai… vs Rennes FC 0-2
Feb 26 Paris Sai… vs Marseille 0-3
Feb 19 Paris Sai… vs Lille 4-3
Feb 11 Paris Sai… vs Monaco 3-1
Feb 08 Paris Sai… vs Marseille 2-1
Jan 15 Paris Sai… vs Rennes FC 1-0
Dec 28 Paris Sai… vs Strasbourg 2-1
Marseille Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 17 Marseille vs Toulouse 0-0
Sep 01 Marseille vs Nantes 1-1
May 20 Marseille vs Lille 2-1
May 14 Marseille vs Angers 3-1
May 06 Marseille vs Lens 2-1
Mar 05 Marseille vs Rennes FC 0-1
Feb 26 Marseille vs Paris Sai… 0-3
Feb 19 Marseille vs Toulouse 2-3
Feb 08 Marseille vs Paris Sai… 2-1
Feb 05 Marseille vs Nice 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Paris Saint Germain in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 26, 2023 Marseille 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1
Feb 08, 2023 Marseille 2 - 1 Paris Saint Germain Coupe de France
Oct 16, 2022 Paris Saint Germain 1 - 0 Marseille Ligue 1
Apr 17, 2022 Paris Saint Germain 2 - 1 Marseille Ligue 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Paris Saint Germain to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Paris Saint Germain Power 49
Marseille Power 48
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Paris Saint Germain Position

+2

Position Gap

3

Marseille Position
Home Win Rate: 89%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.