AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Campionato Feb 26, 2023

Tre Fiori

Home
VS
14:00

Pennarossa

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Tre Fiori Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Pennarossa Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.40 - 0.76
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.8 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tre Fiori Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Pennarossa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
47%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 1-1 (12%) 0-0 (12%) 2-0 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (9%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Under 2.5 Goals 64%
Tre Fiori Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 19 Tre Fiori vs Libertas 0-0
Jan 29 Tre Fiori vs Virtus 1-1
Jan 21 Tre Fiori vs Faetano 1-2
Jan 15 Tre Fiori vs Cosmos 1-1
Jan 07 Tre Fiori vs La Fiorit… 1-1
Dec 18 Tre Fiori vs Juvenes /… 0-1
Dec 14 Tre Fiori vs Virtus 3-1
Nov 05 Tre Fiori vs Murata 0-1
Oct 15 Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa 0-1
Oct 08 Tre Fiori vs Libertas 1-2
Pennarossa Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 Pennarossa vs Cosmos 0-4
Jan 14 Pennarossa vs Virtus 0-1
Dec 09 Pennarossa vs Fiorentino 1-1
Dec 04 Pennarossa vs Juvenes /… 3-1
Nov 26 Pennarossa vs La Fiorit… 1-2
Nov 13 Pennarossa vs Faetano 2-1
Nov 06 Pennarossa vs Domagnano 2-2
Oct 22 Pennarossa vs Cailungo 2-1
Oct 15 Pennarossa vs Tre Fiori 0-1
Oct 09 Pennarossa vs Cosmos 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Pennarossa struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 15, 2022 Pennarossa 0 - 1 Tre Fiori Campionato
May 25, 2022 Pennarossa 1 - 2 Tre Fiori Campionato
Feb 13, 2022 Pennarossa 1 - 1 Tre Fiori Campionato
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tre Fiori to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tre Fiori Power 0
Pennarossa Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Tre Fiori Position

+5

Position Gap

10

Pennarossa Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.