AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eredivisie Feb 08, 2026

AZ Alkmaar

Home
VS
13:30

Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
AZ Alkmaar Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Ajax Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 3.82 - 1.17
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.8 vs 1.2
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
8%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
20%
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 2-1 (6%) 2-0 (5%) 3-2 (4%) 2-2 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
AZ Alkmaar Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 2-1
Jan 31 AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijme… 1-3
Jan 25 AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar 0-1
Jan 21 AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 1-1
Jan 17 AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle 3-1
Jan 14 AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax 6-0
Jan 10 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volend… 1-0
Dec 21 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 4-3
Dec 18 AZ Alkmaar vs Jagiellon… 0-0
Dec 11 AZ Alkmaar vs Drita 0-3
Ajax Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Ajax vs Excelsior 2-2
Jan 28 Ajax vs Olympiako… 0-0
Jan 24 Ajax vs FC Volend… 2-0
Jan 20 Ajax vs Villarreal 1-2
Jan 17 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 2-2
Jan 14 Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 6-0
Jan 11 Ajax vs Telstar 2-3
Jan 05 Ajax vs Seraing U… 4-0
Dec 20 Ajax vs NEC Nijme… 2-2
Dec 17 Ajax vs Excelsior… 2-7
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 14, 2026 AZ Alkmaar 6 - 0 Ajax KNVB Beker
Oct 18, 2025 Ajax 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Mar 16, 2025 Ajax 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Jan 14, 2025 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax KNVB Beker
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Pro League
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Eredivisie
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Pro League
Oct 08, 2023 Ajax 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

AZ Alkmaar Position

-2

Position Gap

4

Ajax Position
Home Win Rate: 40%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.