AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Premier League 2 Division One Feb 06, 2026

Manchester United U21

Home
VS
19:00

Derby County U21

Away
AI Predictions 61.0% Confidence
Manchester United U21 Win
61.0%
Draw
21.8%
Derby County U21 Win
17.2%
Home Win (61% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) M85+S60 (75.3%) TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 90%
Standings 95%
Market 50%
Combined: 58% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 3.62 - 1.86
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.6 vs 1.9 Position gap: 27 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Manchester United U21 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
10%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
19%
Derby County U21 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 2-2 (5%) 3-3 (4%) 3-0 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
Manchester United U21 Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Mancheste… vs West Brom… 1-5
Jan 26 Mancheste… vs Brighton … 1-1
Jan 20 Mancheste… vs Sporting … 3-2
Jan 16 Mancheste… vs Fulham U21 2-2
Jan 12 Mancheste… vs Wolves U21 1-4
Dec 19 Mancheste… vs Borussia … 2-0
Dec 16 Mancheste… vs Tamworth 3-0
Dec 02 Mancheste… vs Anderlech… 1-4
Nov 25 Mancheste… vs Solihull … 4-1
Nov 04 Mancheste… vs Newport C… 0-2
Derby County U21 Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Derby Cou… vs Nottingha… 0-0
Jan 26 Derby Cou… vs Crystal P… 6-0
Jan 16 Derby Cou… vs Aston Vil… 0-0
Jan 06 Derby Cou… vs Sheffield… 1-2
Dec 21 Derby Cou… vs Stoke Cit… 1-1
Dec 16 Derby Cou… vs Bristol C… 3-2
Nov 21 Derby Cou… vs Stoke Cit… 2-2
Nov 10 Derby Cou… vs Blackburn… 1-4
Oct 31 Derby Cou… vs Norwich C… 0-3
Oct 24 Derby Cou… vs Fulham U21 4-4
Key Analysis Factors
  • Manchester United U21 in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 01, 2024 Manchester United U… 2 - 4 Derby County U21 Premier League…
Final Verdict

ELITE: Manchester United U21 to win (95% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 2-0 95% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_25+ (68%) SCORING_THREAT_HOME
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 27
  • Power: 48 vs 19
Manchester United U21 Power 48
Derby County U21 Power 19
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Manchester United U21 Position

+27

Position Gap

28

Derby County U21 Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 17%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.