AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eerste Divisie Feb 06, 2026

De Graafschap

Home
VS
19:00

Jong Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
De Graafschap Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Jong Ajax Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
ODDS60+M70 (77.4%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 82%
Market 66%
Combined: 56% Draw Risk: 44%
Asian Handicap: Home -1.5
xG: 2.47 - 1.50
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 1.5 Position gap: 15 places Market confidence: 64% Asian Handicap: Home -1.5
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
De Graafschap Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Jong Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
22%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 3-1 (7%) 1-1 (7%) 2-2 (6%) 2-0 (6%) 3-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Under 2.5 Goals 29%
De Graafschap Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 De Graafs… vs Helmond S… 0-0
Jan 26 De Graafs… vs Den Bosch 1-1
Jan 23 De Graafs… vs Waalwijk 2-4
Jan 18 De Graafs… vs Almere Ci… 2-0
Dec 20 De Graafs… vs FC OSS 2-3
Dec 12 De Graafs… vs Roda 2-3
Dec 08 De Graafs… vs Jong Utre… 2-3
Dec 04 De Graafs… vs Vitesse 1-2
Nov 30 De Graafs… vs FC Eindho… 2-0
Nov 25 De Graafs… vs ADO Den H… 3-2
Jong Ajax Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Jong Ajax vs Willem II 2-1
Jan 19 Jong Ajax vs Roda 2-2
Jan 12 Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ 1-2
Dec 22 Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk 0-2
Dec 12 Jong Ajax vs MVV Maast… 2-1
Dec 05 Jong Ajax vs Almere Ci… 3-2
Dec 01 Jong Ajax vs Vitesse 2-0
Nov 24 Jong Ajax vs Helmond S… 2-1
Nov 21 Jong Ajax vs FC Eindho… 1-3
Nov 07 Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht 0-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 03, 2025 Jong Ajax 2 - 2 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Apr 19, 2025 De Graafschap 2 - 0 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Dec 09, 2024 Jong Ajax 2 - 0 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Mar 11, 2024 De Graafschap 0 - 2 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 21, 2023 Jong Ajax 1 - 2 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Jan 13, 2023 De Graafschap 3 - 0 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 22, 2022 Jong Ajax 5 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
May 06, 2022 Jong Ajax 1 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Nov 26, 2021 De Graafschap 1 - 3 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: De Graafschap to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 94
De Graafschap Power 0
Jong Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

De Graafschap Position

+15

Position Gap

20

Jong Ajax Position
Home Win Rate: 42%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.