AI Match Insights

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Sergipano Feb 07, 2026

América SE

Home

18:15

Falcon

Away

AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence

América SE Win

51.0%

Draw

23.8%

Falcon Win

25.2%

Home Win (51% confidence)

Predicted Score: 2-0

Decision Justification

Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)

M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)

Player Score 40%

Momentum 94%

Standings 64%

Market 50%

Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 30%

xG: 2.50 - 0.20

Key Insights

xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.2

High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized

Score Prediction Analysis

América SE Goal Probabilities

0 goals:

1 goals:

21%

2 goals:

26%

3 goals:

21%

4 goals:

13%

Falcon Goal Probabilities

0 goals:

82%

1 goals:

16%

2 goals:

3 goals:

4 goals:

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0 (21%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (17%) 0-0 (7%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)

BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Under 2.5 Goals 54%

América SE Form 12.0%

Date	Match	Result
Feb 04	América SE vs Lagarto	0-0
Jan 31	América SE vs Desportiv…	0-0
Jan 25	América SE vs Guaraní SE	0-0
Jan 21	América SE vs Atlético …	2-0
Jan 17	América SE vs Dorense	2-2
Jan 11	América SE vs Sergipe	2-2

Falcon Form 6.0%

Date	Match	Result
Feb 03	Falcon vs Atlético …	2-1
Jan 31	Falcon vs Dorense	1-0
Jan 24	Falcon vs Sergipe	0-2
Jan 21	Falcon vs Confiança	0-0
Jan 16	Falcon vs AO Itabai…	0-2
Jan 10	Falcon vs Lagarto	2-2
Mar 15	Falcon vs Confiança	3-0
Mar 08	Falcon vs Confiança	1-2
Mar 05	Falcon vs Lagarto	0-0
Mar 01	Falcon vs Lagarto	3-0

Key Analysis Factors

Falcon struggling (3L in last 5) Away

Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (18% confidence)

STANDARD Tier

Predicted: 1-1 18% Confidence

Rules Passed

HOME_ADVANTAGE

Key Factors

No key factors identified

América SE Power 0

Falcon Power 0

Home Form N/A

Away Form N/A

League Standings Context

5

América SE Position

+3

Position Gap

8

Falcon Position

Home Win Rate: 33%

Away Win Rate: 0%

Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.