AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga de Expansión MX Feb 08, 2026

Tlaxcala

Home
VS
18:00

Leones Negros UDG

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Tlaxcala Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Leones Negros UDG Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HWR80+DR<25 (75.0%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 90%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 63% Draw Risk: 22%
xG: 2.15 - 0.42
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 0.4 Position gap: 5 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Tlaxcala Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Leones Negros UDG Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (18%) 1-0 (16%) 3-0 (13%) 0-0 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 30%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Tlaxcala Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Tlaxcala vs Correcami… 2-1
Jan 25 Tlaxcala vs Irapuato 2-1
Jan 17 Tlaxcala vs Cancún 1-0
Jan 10 Tlaxcala vs Mineros d… 4-1
Nov 07 Tlaxcala vs Venados FC 5-1
Nov 02 Tlaxcala vs Monarcas 0-1
Oct 26 Tlaxcala vs Dorados 1-1
Oct 11 Tlaxcala vs CDS Tampi… 1-1
Oct 05 Tlaxcala vs Atlante FC 3-0
Sep 28 Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 3-3
Leones Negros UDG Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Leones Ne… vs Tapatío 2-0
Jan 30 Leones Ne… vs Colima 0-2
Jan 25 Leones Ne… vs Correcami… 0-0
Jan 24 Leones Ne… vs UA Zacate… 0-1
Jan 18 Leones Ne… vs Irapuato 4-1
Jan 17 Leones Ne… vs Los Cabos… 2-0
Jan 11 Leones Ne… vs Tigres de… 1-0
Jan 11 Leones Ne… vs CDS Tampi… 4-1
Jan 04 Leones Ne… vs Monterrey 0-3
Nov 22 Leones Ne… vs Tritons V… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tlaxcala struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Leones Negros UDG struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 31, 2025 Leones Negros UDG 2 - 2 Tlaxcala Liga de Expans…
Mar 24, 2024 Tlaxcala 0 - 4 Leones Negros UDG Liga de Expans…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tlaxcala to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tlaxcala Power 0
Leones Negros UDG Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Tlaxcala Position

+5

Position Gap

11

Leones Negros UDG Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.