AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Feb 08, 2025

Lagarto

Home
VS
19:00

AO Itabaiana

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Lagarto Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
AO Itabaiana Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 82%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 45%
xG: 2.08 - 0.94
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 0.9
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
AO Itabaiana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
39%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (11%) 1-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Under 2.5 Goals 44%
Lagarto Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Lagarto vs ConfianƧa 4-0
Jan 26 Lagarto vs Dorense 1-1
Jan 11 Lagarto vs AmĆ©rica Mā€¦ 2-1
Mar 23 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Mar 16 Lagarto vs Falcon 0-0
Mar 13 Lagarto vs ConfianƧa 0-2
Mar 09 Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā€¦ 2-2
Feb 03 Lagarto vs Dorense 3-1
Jan 20 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Jan 14 Lagarto vs AmĆ©rica Mā€¦ 1-2
AO Itabaiana Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Falcon 4-0
Mar 30 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Dorense 2-0
Mar 16 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Dorense 1-1
Mar 13 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Dorense 0-0
Mar 09 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Lagarto 2-2
Feb 18 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Falcon 4-0
Jan 31 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs AtlĆ©tico ā€¦ 2-3
Jan 28 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Sergipe 0-2
Apr 08 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Sergipe 2-1
Apr 02 AO Itabaiā€¦ vs Sergipe 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 09, 2024 AO Itabaiana 2 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 16, 2023 AO Itabaiana 1 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 20, 2022 AO Itabaiana 0 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 05, 2022 Lagarto 1 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 09, 2021 AO Itabaiana 0 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
May 06, 2021 Lagarto 2 - 0 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 01, 2021 AO Itabaiana 1 - 1 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 24, 2021 Lagarto 0 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Lagarto to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Lagarto Power 0
AO Itabaiana Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Lagarto Position

-1

Position Gap

2

AO Itabaiana Position
Home Win Rate: 25%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.