AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Feb 07, 2026

Estoril

Home
VS
18:00

Tondela

Away
AI Predictions 61.0% Confidence
Estoril Win
61.0%
Draw
21.8%
Tondela Win
17.2%
Home Win (61% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 66% Draw Risk: 5%
xG: 3.93 - 0.47
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.9 vs 0.5 Position gap: 9 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Estoril Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
8%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
20%
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (9%) 3-1 (6%) 1-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 37%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Estoril Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Estoril vs Santa Cla… 2-4
Jan 24 Estoril vs Guimaraes 4-2
Jan 19 Estoril vs Estrela d… 0-5
Jan 03 Estoril vs Benfica 3-1
Dec 27 Estoril vs Alverca 4-1
Dec 19 Estoril vs SC Braga 1-0
Dec 14 Estoril vs Famalicao 4-0
Dec 07 Estoril vs Moreirense 3-3
Nov 30 Estoril vs FC Porto 1-0
Nov 22 Estoril vs Famalicao 1-2
Tondela Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Tondela vs Benfica 0-0
Jan 25 Tondela vs Famalicao 3-0
Jan 18 Tondela vs SC Braga 0-1
Jan 11 Tondela vs Moreirense 1-0
Jan 03 Tondela vs Arouca 3-1
Dec 21 Tondela vs Casa Pia … 1-2
Dec 15 Tondela vs Nacional 3-1
Dec 07 Tondela vs FC Porto 0-2
Nov 29 Tondela vs GIL Vicen… 0-1
Nov 23 Tondela vs Caldas 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Estoril in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Tondela struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 31, 2025 Tondela 2 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Nov 19, 2022 Tondela 0 - 0 Estoril Taça da Liga
Feb 12, 2022 Estoril 1 - 0 Tondela Primeira Liga
Dec 21, 2021 Tondela 3 - 1 Estoril Taça de Portug…
Sep 13, 2021 Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Estoril to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Estoril Power 0
Tondela Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Estoril Position

+9

Position Gap

17

Tondela Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.