AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Feb 08, 2026

Benfica

Home
VS
20:30

Alverca

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Benfica Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Alverca Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 65% Draw Risk: 23%
xG: 4.32 - 0.44
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.3 vs 0.4 Position gap: 7 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Benfica Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
6%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
19%
Alverca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (5%) 1-0 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Benfica Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Benfica vs Tondela 0-0
Jan 28 Benfica vs Real Madr… 0-0
Jan 25 Benfica vs Estrela d… 4-0
Jan 21 Benfica vs Juventus 2-0
Jan 17 Benfica vs Rio Ave FC 0-2
Jan 14 Benfica vs FC Porto 1-0
Jan 13 Benfica vs Newcastle… 0-5
Jan 07 Benfica vs Chelsea U… 2-6
Jan 07 Benfica vs SC Braga 1-3
Jan 03 Benfica vs Estoril 3-1
Alverca Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Alverca vs Estrela d… 1-1
Jan 25 Alverca vs SC Braga 5-0
Jan 17 Alverca vs Moreirense 2-1
Jan 04 Alverca vs Famalicao 1-0
Dec 27 Alverca vs Estoril 4-1
Dec 22 Alverca vs FC Porto 0-3
Dec 14 Alverca vs Arouca 1-0
Dec 07 Alverca vs Nacional 1-0
Nov 29 Alverca vs Casa Pia … 0-2
Nov 08 Alverca vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 31, 2025 Alverca 1 - 2 Benfica Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Benfica to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Benfica Power 0
Alverca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Benfica Position

+7

Position Gap

10

Alverca Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.