AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Cup Feb 04, 2026

Manchester City

Home
VS
20:00

Newcastle United

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Manchester City Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Newcastle United Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 59%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 48%
Asian Handicap: Home -1.25
xG: 3.64 - 0.39
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.6 vs 0.4 Asian Handicap: Home -1.25
High draw risk (48%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
10%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
19%
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
68%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%
Manchester City Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Mancheste… vs Tottenham 2-2
Jan 28 Mancheste… vs Galatasar… 1-0
Jan 24 Mancheste… vs Wolves 2-0
Jan 20 Mancheste… vs Bodø/Glimt 3-1
Jan 17 Mancheste… vs Mancheste… 2-0
Jan 13 Mancheste… vs Newcastle… 0-2
Jan 10 Mancheste… vs Exeter Ci… 10-1
Jan 07 Mancheste… vs Brighton 1-1
Jan 04 Mancheste… vs Chelsea 1-1
Jan 01 Mancheste… vs Sunderland 0-0
Newcastle United Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Newcastle… vs Liverpool 4-1
Jan 28 Newcastle… vs Paris Sai… 1-0
Jan 25 Newcastle… vs Aston Vil… 0-2
Jan 21 Newcastle… vs PSV Eindh… 3-0
Jan 18 Newcastle… vs Wolves 0-0
Jan 13 Newcastle… vs Mancheste… 0-2
Jan 10 Newcastle… vs Bournemou… 2-2
Jan 07 Newcastle… vs Leeds 4-3
Jan 04 Newcastle… vs Crystal P… 2-0
Dec 30 Newcastle… vs Burnley 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newcastle United struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 13, 2026 Newcastle United 0 - 2 Manchester City League Cup
Nov 22, 2025 Newcastle United 2 - 1 Manchester City Premier League
Feb 15, 2025 Manchester City 4 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Sep 28, 2024 Newcastle United 1 - 1 Manchester City Pro League
Sep 28, 2024 Newcastle United 1 - 1 Manchester City Premier League
Mar 16, 2024 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United FA Cup
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Pro League
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
Sep 27, 2023 Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester City League Cup
Aug 19, 2023 Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Manchester City to win (40% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Manchester City Power 46
Newcastle United Power 35
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.