AI Match Insights
Eredivisie Mar 16, 2025
Ajax
HomeVS
15:45
AZ Alkmaar
AwayAI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Ajax Win
Draw
AZ Alkmaar Win
Home Win
(49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
58%
Market
50%
Combined: 62%
Draw Risk: 16%
xG: 3.33 - 0.85
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.3 vs 0.8
Score Prediction Analysis
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (9%)
2-0 (8%)
3-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
1-0 (5%)
1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
55%
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
Under 2.5 Goals
33%
Ajax Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Ajax vs Eintracht… | 4-1 |
| Mar 09 | Ajax vs Zwolle | 0-1 |
| Mar 06 | Ajax vs Eintracht… | 1-2 |
| Mar 02 | Ajax vs Almere Ci… | 0-1 |
| Feb 23 | Ajax vs GO Ahead … | 2-0 |
| Feb 20 | Ajax vs Union Sai… | 1-2 |
| Feb 16 | Ajax vs Heracles | 4-0 |
| Feb 13 | Ajax vs Union Sai… | 0-2 |
| Feb 09 | Ajax vs Fortuna S… | 0-2 |
| Feb 02 | Ajax vs Feyenoord | 2-1 |
AZ Alkmaar Form 10.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham | 3-1 |
| Mar 06 | AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham | 1-0 |
| Mar 02 | AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen | 3-1 |
| Feb 27 | AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles | 2-2 |
| Feb 23 | AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… | 1-0 |
| Feb 20 | AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasar… | 2-2 |
| Feb 13 | AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasar… | 4-1 |
| Feb 09 | AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle | 2-0 |
| Feb 06 | AZ Alkmaar vs Quick Boys | 3-1 |
| Feb 02 | AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II | 0-2 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Ajax | Pro League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | Ajax | Pro League |
| Oct 08, 2023 | Ajax | 1 - 2 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| May 06, 2023 | Ajax | 0 - 0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 08, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 2 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Mar 03, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 2 | Ajax | KNVB Beker |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1
23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Ajax Power
0
AZ Alkmaar Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
4
Ajax Position+2
Position Gap6
AZ Alkmaar Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.