AI Match Insights

Eredivisie Mar 16, 2025

Ajax

Home
VS
15:45

AZ Alkmaar

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Ajax Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
AZ Alkmaar Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 62% Draw Risk: 16%
xG: 3.33 - 0.85
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.3 vs 0.8
Score Prediction Analysis
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
43%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (9%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 1-0 (5%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Under 2.5 Goals 33%
Ajax Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 13 Ajax vs Eintracht… 4-1
Mar 09 Ajax vs Zwolle 0-1
Mar 06 Ajax vs Eintracht… 1-2
Mar 02 Ajax vs Almere Ci… 0-1
Feb 23 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 2-0
Feb 20 Ajax vs Union Sai… 1-2
Feb 16 Ajax vs Heracles 4-0
Feb 13 Ajax vs Union Sai… 0-2
Feb 09 Ajax vs Fortuna S… 0-2
Feb 02 Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-1
AZ Alkmaar Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 13 AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham 3-1
Mar 06 AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham 1-0
Mar 02 AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen 3-1
Feb 27 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles 2-2
Feb 23 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 1-0
Feb 20 AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasar… 2-2
Feb 13 AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasar… 4-1
Feb 09 AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-0
Feb 06 AZ Alkmaar vs Quick Boys 3-1
Feb 02 AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 14, 2025 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax KNVB Beker
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Pro League
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Eredivisie
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Pro League
Oct 08, 2023 Ajax 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0 - 2 Ajax KNVB Beker
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Ajax Power 0
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Ajax Position

+2

Position Gap

6

AZ Alkmaar Position

Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.