AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eredivisie Feb 25, 2024

AZ Alkmaar

Home
VS
15:45

Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
AZ Alkmaar Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Ajax Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 3.50 - 2.96
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.5 vs 3.0
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
11%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
15%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (5%) 3-3 (5%) 2-2 (4%) 2-3 (4%) 3-1 (3%) 2-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 92%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
AZ Alkmaar Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 17 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 1-2
Feb 17 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 1-2
Feb 10 AZ Alkmaar vs Almere Ci… 0-0
Feb 07 AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord 2-0
Feb 04 AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord 0-1
Jan 28 AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen 2-2
Jan 20 AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-2
Jan 20 AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-2
Jan 16 AZ Alkmaar vs Quick Boys 3-3
Jan 13 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 2-1
Ajax Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 Ajax vs Nijmegen 2-2
Feb 11 Ajax vs Heerenveen 3-2
Feb 03 Ajax vs PSV Eindh… 1-1
Jan 27 Ajax vs Heracles 2-4
Jan 21 Ajax vs Waalwijk 4-1
Jan 14 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 2-3
Jan 14 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 2-3
Dec 21 Ajax vs Heracles 3-2
Dec 17 Ajax vs Zwolle 2-2
Dec 09 Ajax vs Sparta Ro… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 08, 2023 Ajax 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0 - 2 Ajax KNVB Beker
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

AZ Alkmaar Position

-2

Position Gap

4

Ajax Position
Home Win Rate: 40%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.