AI Match Insights

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Eredivisie Oct 08, 2023

Ajax

Home
VS
12:30

AZ Alkmaar

Away
AI Predictions 41.2% Confidence
Ajax Win
31.0%
Draw
27.8%
AZ Alkmaar Win
41.2%
Away Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 35%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 38% Draw Risk: 45%
xG: 0.71 - 1.98
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1 (13%) 0-2 (13%) 1-1 (10%) 1-2 (9%) 0-3 (9%) 0-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Under 2.5 Goals 51%
Ajax Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 Ajax vs Feyenoord 0-4
Sep 03 Ajax vs Fortuna S… 0-0
Aug 19 Ajax vs Excelsior 2-2
May 16 Ajax vs Groningen 2-3
May 06 Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 0-0
Apr 09 Ajax vs Fortuna S… 4-0
Apr 05 Ajax vs Feyenoord 1-2
Apr 02 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 0-0
Mar 19 Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-3
Jan 29 Ajax vs Excelsior 1-4
AZ Alkmaar Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 01 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 4-0
Sep 24 AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 0-3
Aug 13 AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead … 5-1
May 21 AZ Alkmaar vs Nijmegen 0-3
May 06 AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax 0-0
Apr 16 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 0-3
Mar 19 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 2-1
Feb 10 AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 5-0
Feb 04 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volend… 1-1
Jan 25 AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead … 1-4
Key Analysis Factors
  • AZ Alkmaar in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0 - 2 Ajax KNVB Beker
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Ajax Power 0
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Ajax Position

+2

Position Gap

6

AZ Alkmaar Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.