AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eredivisie May 06, 2023

Ajax

Home
VS
19:00

AZ Alkmaar

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Ajax Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
AZ Alkmaar Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 86%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.69 - 2.22
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.7 vs 2.2
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
9%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
19%
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (6%) 3-1 (5%) 2-2 (5%) 3-3 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 2-3 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
Ajax Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 09 Ajax vs Fortuna S… 4-0
Apr 05 Ajax vs Feyenoord 1-2
Apr 02 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 0-0
Mar 19 Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-3
Jan 29 Ajax vs Excelsior 1-4
Jan 26 Ajax vs FC Volend… 1-1
Jan 22 Ajax vs Feyenoord 1-1
Dec 07 Ajax vs FC Volend… 5-4
Oct 16 Ajax vs Excelsior 7-1
Oct 08 Ajax vs FC Volend… 2-4
AZ Alkmaar Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 16 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 0-3
Mar 19 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 2-1
Feb 10 AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 5-0
Feb 04 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volend… 1-1
Jan 25 AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead … 1-4
Jan 22 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna S… 3-1
Jan 11 AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 1-4
Oct 30 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volend… 2-1
Oct 23 AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 2-1
Sep 18 AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • AZ Alkmaar in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0 - 2 Ajax KNVB Beker
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Ajax Power 0
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Ajax Position

+2

Position Gap

6

AZ Alkmaar Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.