AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A2 Feb 11, 2026

Água Santa

Home
VS
22:00

Ferroviária

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Água Santa Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Ferroviária Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 29%
xG: 3.35 - 0.90
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.4 vs 0.9
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Água Santa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Ferroviária Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 1-0 (5%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Under 2.5 Goals 33%
Água Santa Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Água Santa vs Santo And… 2-1
Jan 28 Água Santa vs Inter De … 0-2
Jan 24 Água Santa vs Sertãozin… 3-1
Jan 21 Água Santa vs XV de Pir… 0-0
Jan 17 Água Santa vs São Bento 3-0
Jan 14 Água Santa vs Linense 2-1
Jan 10 Água Santa vs Votuporan… 1-0
Feb 23 Água Santa vs Velo Clube 1-0
Feb 19 Água Santa vs Inter De … 2-2
Feb 16 Água Santa vs Santos 3-1
Ferroviária Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Ferroviár… vs São Bento 2-0
Jan 28 Ferroviár… vs Santo And… 0-1
Jan 24 Ferroviár… vs Taubaté 1-2
Jan 21 Ferroviár… vs Inter De … 2-1
Jan 17 Ferroviár… vs Ituano 1-1
Jan 14 Ferroviár… vs Juventus 5-1
Jan 09 Ferroviár… vs Oeste 0-0
Nov 27 Ferroviár… vs Pague Men… 3-2
Nov 23 Ferroviár… vs Fortaleza 2-1
Nov 16 Ferroviár… vs Athletico… 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Água Santa in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Ferroviária in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Água Santa to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Água Santa Power 0
Ferroviária Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Água Santa Position

-2

Position Gap

1

Ferroviária Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.