AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Bundesliga Feb 14, 2026

Bayer Leverkusen

Home
VS
14:30

FC St. Pauli

Away
AI Predictions 65.0% Confidence
Bayer Leverkusen Win
65.0%
Draw
21.0%
FC St. Pauli Win
14.0%
Home Win (65% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 2.30 - 0.51
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 0.5 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
12%
FC St. Pauli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
60%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (16%) 1-0 (14%) 3-0 (12%) 2-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Under 2.5 Goals 50%
Bayer Leverkusen Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Bayer Lev… vs FC St. Pa… 3-0
Jan 31 Bayer Lev… vs Eintracht… 1-3
Jan 28 Bayer Lev… vs Villarreal 1-0
Jan 24 Bayer Lev… vs Werder Br… 1-0
Jan 20 Bayer Lev… vs Olympiako… 2-0
Jan 17 Bayer Lev… vs 1899 Hoff… 1-0
Jan 10 Bayer Lev… vs VfB Stutt… 1-4
Dec 20 Bayer Lev… vs RB Leipzig 1-3
Dec 13 Bayer Lev… vs FC Koln 2-0
Dec 10 Bayer Lev… vs Newcastle… 2-2
FC St. Pauli Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 FC St. Pa… vs Bayer Lev… 3-0
Jan 31 FC St. Pa… vs FC Augsbu… 2-1
Jan 27 FC St. Pa… vs RB Leipzig 1-1
Jan 23 FC St. Pa… vs Hamburger… 0-0
Jan 17 FC St. Pa… vs Borussia … 3-2
Jan 14 FC St. Pa… vs VfL Wolfs… 2-1
Dec 21 FC St. Pa… vs FSV Mainz… 0-0
Dec 13 FC St. Pa… vs FC Heiden… 2-1
Dec 06 FC St. Pa… vs FC Koln 1-1
Dec 02 FC St. Pa… vs Borussia … 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Bayer Leverkusen in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • FC St. Pauli struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 03, 2026 Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 0 FC St. Pauli DFB Pokal
Sep 27, 2025 FC St. Pauli 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga
Apr 20, 2025 FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga
Dec 07, 2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
Dec 07, 2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli Pro League
Final Verdict

PRO: Bayer Leverkusen to win (73% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 73% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Bayer Leverkusen Power 42
FC St. Pauli Power 35
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Bayer Leverkusen Position

+11

Position Gap

17

FC St. Pauli Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.