AI Match Insights
National Soccer League Feb 08, 2026
Police
HomeVS
16:30
AS Kigali
AwayAI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Police Win
Draw
AS Kigali Win
Home Win
(51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
87%
Market
50%
Combined: 57%
Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.19 - 0.40
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 0.4
Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Police Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
AS Kigali Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (15%)
2-0 (14%)
1-0 (9%)
3-1 (6%)
2-1 (6%)
1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
Under 2.5 Goals
41%
Police Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11 | Police vs Kiyovu Sp… | 0-0 |
| Jan 08 | Police vs Al Merrei… | 1-1 |
| Jan 03 | Police vs Gorilla | 4-0 |
| Dec 26 | Police vs Bugesera | 1-0 |
| Dec 20 | Police vs Etincelles | 0-1 |
| Dec 12 | Police vs Gasogi Un… | 1-0 |
| Dec 06 | Police vs APR | 0-0 |
| Nov 30 | Police vs Musanze | 1-1 |
| Nov 26 | Police vs Al Hilal … | 0-0 |
| Nov 22 | Police vs Gicumbi | 2-1 |
AS Kigali Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | AS Kigali vs Rayon Spo… | 0-1 |
| Jan 09 | AS Kigali vs Rutsiro | 0-0 |
| Jan 03 | AS Kigali vs Etincelles | 0-1 |
| Dec 29 | AS Kigali vs Al Hilal … | 4-2 |
| Dec 26 | AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… | 1-1 |
| Dec 19 | AS Kigali vs Bugesera | 0-0 |
| Dec 13 | AS Kigali vs Muhanga | 0-0 |
| Dec 07 | AS Kigali vs Al Merrei… | 2-1 |
| Dec 04 | AS Kigali vs Gicumbi | 2-1 |
| Nov 28 | AS Kigali vs APR | 1-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
No specific factors identified for this match.
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 07, 2025 | AS Kigali | 0 - 0 | Police | National Socce… |
| May 22, 2025 | Police | 1 - 1 | AS Kigali | National Socce… |
| Nov 10, 2024 | AS Kigali | 1 - 0 | Police | National Socce… |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Police | 0 - 1 | AS Kigali | National Socce… |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Police to win (64% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Police Power
0
AS Kigali Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
3
Police Position+11
Position Gap14
AS Kigali Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.