AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Feb 17, 2026

Stevenage

Home
VS
19:45

Port Vale

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Stevenage Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Port Vale Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 81%
Market 50%
Combined: 56% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 2.03 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.2 Position gap: 16 places
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Stevenage Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Port Vale Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (22%) 1-0 (22%) 3-0 (15%) 0-0 (11%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 16%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Under 2.5 Goals 63%
Stevenage Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Stevenage vs Burnley 3-1
Jan 27 Stevenage vs Peterboro… 1-0
Jan 24 Stevenage vs Mansfield… 1-1
Jan 20 Stevenage vs Bolton 0-0
Jan 17 Stevenage vs Exeter Ci… 3-0
Jan 10 Stevenage vs Bolton 2-1
Jan 01 Stevenage vs Plymouth 1-1
Dec 29 Stevenage vs Cardiff 2-1
Dec 26 Stevenage vs AFC Wimbl… 0-0
Dec 20 Stevenage vs Brighton 2-2
Port Vale Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Port Vale vs AFC Wimbl… 0-1
Jan 31 Port Vale vs Leyton Or… 0-1
Jan 24 Port Vale vs Exeter Ci… 1-3
Jan 17 Port Vale vs Mansfield… 3-0
Jan 13 Port Vale vs Bolton 0-1
Jan 09 Port Vale vs Fleetwood… 1-0
Jan 01 Port Vale vs Blackpool 5-1
Dec 29 Port Vale vs Brentford 1-0
Dec 26 Port Vale vs Huddersfi… 5-0
Dec 20 Port Vale vs Peterboro… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Port Vale struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 19, 2025 Port Vale 1 - 2 Stevenage League One
Feb 10, 2024 Port Vale 2 - 2 Stevenage Pro League
Final Verdict

MASTER: Stevenage to win (75% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 75% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 16
Stevenage Power 36
Port Vale Power 28
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Stevenage Position

+16

Position Gap

24

Port Vale Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.