AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sul-Matogrossense Feb 11, 2026

Naviraiense

Home
VS
23:30

Dourados Atlético

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Naviraiense Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Dourados Atlético Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.36 - 0.47
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.5
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Naviraiense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Dourados Atlético Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 0-0 (16%) 2-0 (15%) 1-1 (10%) 0-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Under 2.5 Goals 73%
Naviraiense Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Naviraien… vs Ivinhema 1-1
Jan 31 Naviraien… vs Cr Aquida… 1-2
Jan 28 Naviraien… vs Corumbaen… 1-0
Jan 24 Naviraien… vs Bataguassu 2-0
Mar 02 Naviraien… vs Coxim 0-2
Feb 07 Naviraien… vs Portugues… 3-0
Dourados Atlético Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Dourados … vs Costa Rica 1-1
Jan 31 Dourados … vs Águia Neg… 1-0
Jan 28 Dourados … vs Portugues… 0-1
Jan 24 Dourados … vs Ivinhema 1-1
Mar 09 Dourados … vs Águia Neg… 2-1
Mar 05 Dourados … vs Águia Neg… 2-1
Feb 26 Dourados … vs Caxias 0-2
Feb 23 Dourados … vs Costa Rica 2-2
Feb 15 Dourados … vs Jataiense 2-0
Feb 08 Dourados … vs Tombense 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Naviraiense in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Naviraiense to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Naviraiense Power 0
Dourados Atlético Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Naviraiense Position

+3

Position Gap

6

Dourados Atlético Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.