AI Match Insights
FAW Championship Feb 21, 2026
Caersws
HomeVS
14:00
Penrhyncoch
AwayAI Predictions 63.0% Confidence
Caersws Win
Draw
Penrhyncoch Win
Home Win
(63% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
70%
Market
50%
Combined: 64%
Draw Risk: 15%
xG: 4.50 - 0.36
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.4
Position gap: 6 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Caersws Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Penrhyncoch Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%)
2-0 (8%)
3-1 (4%)
1-0 (3%)
2-1 (3%)
1-1 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
Under 2.5 Goals
43%
Caersws Form 18.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | Caersws vs Penrhynco… | 1-3 |
| Jan 30 | Caersws vs Ruthin To… | 0-1 |
| Jan 24 | Caersws vs Holyhead … | 2-2 |
| Jan 01 | Caersws vs Newtown A… | 1-0 |
| Dec 26 | Caersws vs Mold Alex… | 0-2 |
| Dec 13 | Caersws vs Ruthin To… | 5-1 |
| Dec 06 | Caersws vs Flint Mou… | 3-0 |
| Nov 08 | Caersws vs Gresford … | 3-1 |
| Nov 01 | Caersws vs Buckley T… | 4-3 |
| Oct 25 | Caersws vs Guilsfield | 0-0 |
Penrhyncoch Form 6.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | Penrhynco… vs Caersws | 1-3 |
| Jan 31 | Penrhynco… vs Airbus UK | 4-0 |
| Jan 24 | Penrhynco… vs Brickfiel… | 1-0 |
| Jan 10 | Penrhynco… vs Gresford … | 3-2 |
| Dec 31 | Penrhynco… vs Ruthin To… | 1-1 |
| Dec 27 | Penrhynco… vs Guilsfield | 0-1 |
| Dec 05 | Penrhynco… vs Newtown A… | 1-1 |
| Nov 29 | Penrhynco… vs Buckley T… | 6-0 |
| Nov 22 | Penrhynco… vs Caernarfo… | 4-0 |
| Nov 08 | Penrhynco… vs Brickfiel… | 4-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Caersws in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
- Penrhyncoch struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04, 2026 | Penrhyncoch | 1 - 3 | Caersws | FAW Championsh… |
| Mar 01, 2025 | Caersws | 1 - 2 | Penrhyncoch | FAW Championsh… |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Penrhyncoch | 4 - 1 | Caersws | FAW Championsh… |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Penrhyncoch | 1 - 1 | Caersws | Welsh Cup |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Caersws to win (43% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Caersws Power
0
Penrhyncoch Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
9
Caersws Position+6
Position Gap15
Penrhyncoch Position
Home Win Rate: 44%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.